Sunday, March 12, 2006

 

‘06 Cards Positional Analysis

The Cardinals begin the Spring looking to answer a few questions about their lineup as they move into the new Busch Stadium. Who will replace the departed Mark Grudzialanek at second base?

Can Larry Bigbie produce as the everyday left fielder?

Will Scott Rolen be 100% recovered from a pair of off season surgeries?

Will Yadier Molina find his offense?

These are just a sample of the questions that are staring down G.M. Walt Jocketty and manager Tony LaRussa. Here is an inside look at the projected batting order and makeup of the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals.

David Eckstein returns in 2006 to the top of the Cardinals batting order to set the table for what should again be a fine offensive ball club. The X Factor sizes up nicely with former Yankee great Phil Rizzuto when you look at his approach and career numbers. Eck is a very good contact hitter with nice bat control.


He is able to handle the ball with the bat anywhere in the zone. He provides a spark plug from the leadoff spot, a very good on base percentage allows him to set up his teammates nicely. Eck struck out only 44 times in 630 at-bats last season, finishing with a .294/.363/.395/.758 batting line. He will always give you a quality at-bat as he works the count well by fighting off pitches and putting the ball into play.

Eckstein is one of the premier two-strike hitters in all of baseball. He hit .373 (12.3 clutch) and a .571 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position in 2005. David created 106 runs (6.3 RC/27) in 713 plate appearances and saw an average of four pitches per plate appearance last year.

On the base paths he is an instinctive base runner who seems to rise to the occasion when the game is on the line. Eckstein isn’t the fastest runner but can be counted on to swipe between 15 and 20 bags annually.

In the field Eckstein has altered his mechanics and it has had a direct result in the speed of his release and throwing motion. He doesn’t have the strongest arm of the shortstops on the Senior Circuit but he positions himself well and that masks some of his limited range and lack of agility. david gets the most out of his abilities and his intangibles are through the roof.

He is a real gamer on the field, every managers dream. While Eck isn’t the most prototypical leadoff hitter or shortstop he is exactly what Tony LaRussa is looking for at the top of the order and in the field, a player that brings his lunch pail to work with him everyday and plays to the best of his abilities. This kid leaves it all out on the field, you couldn’t ask for much more from the Cards’ offensive catalyst.

The second spot in the batting order could either be handled by Larry Bigbie, who is expected to start in left field, or by new right fielder Juan Encarnacion.

Bigbie was brought over from the Colorado Rockies via trade in the off season after underperforming (in part due to injuries) miles above above sea level. Bigs possesses only average bat speed and has somewhat of a elongated stroke. He prefers balls low in the zone where he can really hammer them straight away. He is looking to get back to the numbers he posted in 2004 with Baltimore, when he hit .280/.341/.427/.768 with 15 homers and knocked in 68 runs.


He missed some time in 2005 due to a strained right achilles tendon. Bigbie is an average base runner who could use some work getting good jumps and tightening up his mechanics on the base paths.

He is nothing special defensively, strictly average across the board. He has decent speed for the outfield but over thinks himself at times and occasionally will take bad reads and jumps on balls. His arm strength is only average though it is very accurate.

Bigbie should be able to become a serviceable left-handed hitter in St. Louis and could really surprise some folks if he can stay healthy and regain his line-drive stroke.

Encarnacion is the other candidate to bat in the number two hole. Though he most likely will slide into the six-hole for the Cards. His good bat speed is often negated by his long swing and slight uppercut. He’ll need to work on shortening his swing in able to become a real force for the Cards at the plate. Juan is more of a pull-hitter and will suffer from a lot of strikeouts (104 in ‘05).

He is a good fastball hitter, he’ll absolutely kill the ball out and over the plate. His problem is that he struggles at times with breaking balls and good heat on the inside half of the plate. If he can maintain his plate discipline and stay healthy the Cardinals could have a real bargain at an average of $5 million per over the next three seasons. He batted .331 with runner in scoring position (8.6 clutch) and created 91 runs in 563 plate appearances (6.8 RC/27).

Encarnacion has the speed to give opposing teams fits on the bases though he could use some tutelage to refine his base running skills. At times he doesn’t get good reads or jumps off of pitchers. He is a definite 20/20 threat, especially if he moves up in the batting order. Juan did swipe 19 bases as recently as 2003.

In the field he has an above-average and accurate arm but takes poor routes to the ball too often.

Encarnacion can be a force in the lineup when he is taken out of high-pressure situations, as evidenced by his .373 average and .667 slugging percentage when batting in the six-hole for the Marlins last year in 75 at-bats.

El Hombre, Albert Pujols, finally won the elusive National League MVP Award last season after two second place finishes. It was definitely well deserved as he once again had one of the finest all-around years in baseball history. Ever since his first big league game back on April 2, 2001 Pujols has been one of the best players on the Senior Circuit.

Albert’s career numbers are stacking up nicely through age 25 with those of Joltin’ Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantel, Hammerin’ Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson and Jimmie Foxx - all of them baseball immortals in their own right. He has been most favorably compared offensively with DiMaggio, very elite company indeed.


All of this by a lowly 13th round draft selection by the Cards back in 1999. He has to be considered the greatest draft pick, both overall and value wise, during the Walt Jocketty era.

Pujols enters the 2006 campaign as on of the best, if not the best, pure hitters in baseball. His swing is a piece of art as he possesses power to all fields and can hit the most unhittable of pitches. He topped the 40-homer mark for the third consecutive season in 2005, finishing at .330/.430/.609/1.039, 41 dingers, 117 runs driven in, .318 BABIP and 142 runs created in 700 plate appearances (9.7 RC/27). Pujols hit .329 with runners in scoring position, cementing himself as one of the best clutch-hitters in the National League. He is very selective at the plate, seeing an average of 3.9 pitches per plate appearance in ‘05.

The heart and soul of the St. Louis lineup joined an elite club in 2005 as he became only the fourth player in baseball history to knock in over 100 runs in each of his first five seasons. He joined Joe DiMaggio, Teddy Williams and Al Simmons in that exclusive club.

Prince Albert isn’t all about offense, this guy can play some defense as well. He is one of the best first basemen on the Senior Circuit as he has good agility and mobility around the bag. He also has good hands and footwork. Pujols can save some erratic throws and dig the ball out of the dirt. He has a strong arm and can really charge the ball during bunt situations very well. It wouldn’t be a stretch to see him win a Gold Glove in the near future, he just keeps improving in all aspects of the game. If his play continues at this pace he could rewrite the St. Louis record books and punch his own ticket to Cooperstown in the process.

If healthy, Scott Rolen, should bat cleanup for the Cards in 2006. He is coming off of shoulder surgery that limited him to 56 games last year and the Cards are hoping that it doesn’t affect his stroke. Rolen has also experienced problems with his knee in the past and that has to concern the front office as well. The shoulder surgery was due to a collision with Hee Seop Choi last May, he ended up going under the knife in both May and August of last year.


Rolen is one of the best all-around third basemen in the game when healthy. He hits from a wide stance and a deep crouch. Scotty gets the most out of it as his very quick hands generate tremendous bat speed and underrated power. He likes the ball out and over the plate but can turn on inside stuff as well. Rolen has plus power and can really drive the ball to all field with authority.

Scott is a very smart base runner, perhaps the best in the game today. He is capable of giving you 15-25 steals on an annual basis.

Rolen is a great defender at the hot corner, one of the very best of his generation. He displays tremendous footwork, first-step quickness and agility around the bag. Scott possesses the best arm and accuracy of any third baseman in the majors.

As the perennial Gold Glove winner at third base in the National League the question many people ask is if Rolen is better than Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt? Everyone but the folks in the City of Brotherly Love (coincidentally Rolen’s old haunting grounds) seems to think so. He’s a special player that adds so much to a ball club whenever he steps onto the field.

Rolen is the key to the Cards’ season in 2006, remember this is a guy who hit .314/.409/.598/.997 with 34 homers and knocked in 124 runs as recently as 2004. If he can remain healthy and produce as he always has it could be the difference between St. Louis bringing home the World Series Trophy and another playoff exit. His presence in the lineup, both offensively and defensively, mean so much to this club.

Jim Edmonds returns in 2006 to provide protection in the lineup for both Pujols and Rolen. Jimmy has a very quick bat and one of the most productive swings in the game. He possesses power to all fields and has been very productive over his career with runners in scoring position. For the most part he is a very patient hitter (4.2 P/PA), though he does chase the occasional high heater.


The .263 batting average that he posted in ‘05 was the lowest in his career when playing at least 55 games. Last season he hit .297 with runners in scoring position (4.9 clutch) and created 97 runs in 567 plate appearances (7.6 RC/27). Edmonds should remain a constant source of power over the next couple of years though his best days could be in the rearview mirror, not exactly what Cardinal fans want to hear.

In the field Edmonds is an eight-time Gold Glove winner in center field. his reads and routes in the field are truly exceptional, he is one of the greatest defensive outfielders in the game today.

Edmonds does turn 36 in June and has experienced problems with his hamstrings the past couple of years but if he can hold his body together throughout the season he will be a huge asset to the Cardinals in their chase for the World Championship.

In the six hole you should expect to see either Bigbie or Encarnacion, whomever doesn’t bat number two in the order.

Batting seventh will be the winner of the second base derby created when 2005 starter Mark Grudzialanek was not re-signed by the club. Junior Spivey, Hector Luna and Aaron Miles will battle it out this Spring to team up with David Eckstein as the Cardinals’ double play combination.

Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty has been telling anyone who will listen this Spring that Junior Spivey is a player that the Redbirds have had their eyes on for a number of years and have inquired about obtaining many times. No joke, Spivey was originally drafted by the Cardinals organization in the 28th round of the 1995 draft (the same draft that saw Matt Morris go #12 overall to St. Louis) but failed to sign. Have the Cardinals finally righted the mistake of not poneying up to get him inked back then?


Junior hits the fastball well but will struggle with some off-speed pitches. He can drive balls up in the zone with authority. The Cards hope that he will learn to be more selective at the plate because he can become an above-average offensive second baseman if he worked deeper into the count.

In the field Spivey has good quickness, range and athleticism but needs to hone his footwork. He turns the double play well and has a nice arm but can be erratic with his throws at times.

Injuries have limited Junior to only 136 games the past two seasons, as he saw very limited action in the second half of both 2004 and 2005. A shoulder injury in ‘04 cost him all of the second half of the season. He broke his forearm in a freak batting accident last year though he still managed to hit .286 with runners in scoring position.

If Spivey can approach his 2002 All-Star form when he hit .301/.389/.476/.865 with 16 round-trippers and 78 RBI’s the front office will be doing cartwheels in the Busch Stadium parking lot. He has the tools to be a very nice second basemen for the Cards but the jury is still out as to whether he will put it all together in 2006.

Hector Luna is a classic line-drive hitter with a shorter stroke than when he first came up to the bigs. Luna has worked really hard at the plate and improved his bat speed though he is still impatient at times in the box. He batted 61 points higher in the majors than he did at Triple-A Memphis last year and Cardinal fans shouldn’t expect that trend to continue. Luna has very good instincts on the base paths and would have a place as a pinch hitter/pinch runner should he not win the second base derby.


He is a quality jack-of-all-trades utility infielder. Hector offers versatility in the infield as he can play second, short or third. He has good arm strength but needs to work on his footwork.

Hector hit .285/.344/.409/.753 in 137 at-bats once he arrived in St. Louis in 2005. He hit .282 with runners in scoring position and posted a .342 BABIP. The Cardinals have a lot of time invested in his development and would like to begin to see it start producing the fruits of their labor.

Aaron Miles is the other candidate for the second base opening. Miles missed a month in ‘05 with a strained back and struggled outside of the ultra-friendly confines of Coors Field (.208 average on the road).

Aaron had his most productive season in 2004 hitting .293/.329/.368/.697 with six homers, 12 swipes and 47 ribbies for the Rockies.

Miles has good bat control and an affective inside-outside stroke but doesn’t drive the ball and is only adequate in the field. Miles is a switch-hitter who could be used to expose match-ups in the National League Central, but it is doubtful that he could up over the long haul as the primary two-bagger. He needs to work the count better and work on plate discipline (3.3 P/PA).

Rounding out the Cardinals’ batting order (besides the pitchers) is last but not least up-and-coming catcher, Yadier Molina, the Cards’ 4th round draft pick in 2000.

Yadier has become a more selective hitter at the plate and has improved his bat speed and his ability to take the ball the other way.


Molina has very quick feet and good agility behind the plate. He showcased his excellent arm and soft hands in 2005 as he gunned down 55% of would-be base-stealers. Molina has the ability to single-handedly shut down the opposing running game. His defensive prowess should eventually earn him a Gold Glove behind the plate.

He ha shown the ability to command of the game and works well with his pitchers. There is an advanced presence about him, you’d never guess he was only 23-years old.

One of the best defensive catchers in the game his offense is finally starting to catch up with him.

Molina got off to a slow start in 2005, hitting just .162 in April then spending some time on the disabled list (missing 55 games) due to a broken left hand. He was able to raise his average to .252 (.295/.358/.653) by seasons end, as he hit .321 in May and .279 in June. Molina did hit .330 with runners in scoring position (8.3 Clutch).

He abandoned the exaggerated crouching position at the plate in favor of a stance more spread out, ala Albert Pujols. He began to hit to all fields and, though he still prefers to take the ball to right field.

Hit .302 in 129 Triple-A at-bats in 2004 but has yet to approach that level in St. Louis. He Needs to work the count better, as he only saw an average of 3.2 pitches per plate appearance.

Molina should continue to evolve into one of the better all-around catchers in the game and eventually develop into an All-Star backstop for the Cards.

The Cardinals have a number of options for the remaining bench spots. You have the eight starters, the five pitchers in the rotation, and whether manager Tony LaRussa decides to go with six or seven relievers to begin the years will have a huge impact on the makeup of the Cardinal bench. There could either be six or seven openings.

One bench spot is assuredly going to backup catcher Gary Bennett. Bennett doesn’t hit much as defense and his handling of a pitching staff are his forte. He possesses a strong arm behind the plate and has the toughness to block the plate when needed. He was brought to St. Louis to provide defensive stability when Yadier Molina needs a breather. He is a very professional backstop who should be able to mentor the young Yadier on the finer points of catching at the major league level.

Reserve outfielder, So Taguchi, is also a lock to make the team out of Spring Training. Taguchi is an asset off of the bench as he has matured into a dependable - and clutch - hitter for the Cardinals. He can play all the outfield slots and figures to be used to spell Edmonds in center quite a bit throughout 2006. Taguchi is being given the opportunity to challenge Larry Bigbie for the starting left field job, though he figures to come out on the short end of the stick there.

Tags played in a career high 143 games in 2005 due to a plethora of injuries to the Cardinals outfielders, seeing time at all three outfield positions. He is a good role player but not an everyday outfielder. Taguchi hit .288/.318/.408/.726 (.325 BABIP) in 396 at-bats and .407 with runners in scoring position (9.6 Clutch).

Taguchi is a valuable commodity off of the bench as he can fill a gap for an extended period of time if injuries hit (as they did in ‘05), provide a quality bat off of the bench or provide LaRussa with a late innings base runner/defender.

The last four or five spots on the bench will be open to a free-for-all during Spring Training. Whomever doesn’t win the second base opening between Junior Spivey, Aaron Miles and Hector Luna could find themselves filling the backup middle infield void. The nod there would have to go to Luna as he is more versatile defensively than either Spivey or Miles. My thinking here is that Aaron Miles could be the odd man out in the numbers game unless the Cards are willing to send Luna back down on the farm to begin the year.

Filling the other backup infield slot should come down to a number of players, let’s take a glance at each of them.

Scott Spiezio offers the Cardinals versatility galore as he has experience playing first base, second base, third base, left field and right field at the major league level. That is a major plus as he could fill in many gaps and LaRussa wouldn’t have to worry about where he’d play defensively when utilizing him as a pinch hitter/runner.

Spiezio has some pop, is a switch-hitter, plays all over the field and has had a strong Spring to date. What’s not to like about this guy? Scott also has a history of coming up with the big hit when needed, always a plus as a pinch-hitter. He also could step up and fill in as a starter for a stint if needed. There is a lot to like about him making the team as a bench/role player in 2006.

He is a lifetime .253/.324/.414/.738 hitter. Spiezio’s best season was in 2002 when he hit .285/.371/.436/.807 with 12 homers, six swipes and 82 RBI’s for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (also of Stockton, Huntington Beach, San Jose, Tijuana, etc.). Scott only received 47 at-bats for the Seattle Mariners last season and hit a pedestrian .064/.137/.149/.286 with one home run.

Deivi Cruz was handed an $800k guaranteed contract for this season by G.M. Walt Jocketty and that may be reason enough to justify him making the team, even if it were for the sole purpose of management having to confess they may have made a blunder.

Cruz is a slashing-type hitter who makes contact but rarely walks. He needs to learn better plate discipline to see more at-bats for the Redbirds. A career .269/.293/.388/.681 hitter, he loves to hit the fastball but will struggle often with some breaking balls and off-speed pitches. Split 2005 between San Francisco and Washington, hitting a combined .265/.298/.387/.685 in 280 at-bats.

Cruz has average range but a good arm in the field. The biggest attribute that he offers the team is his versatility as he played 49 games at second base, 24 at shortstop and five at third base in 2005.

Outfielder John Gall is LaRussa’s favorite late-innings pinch hitter against lefties. Gall has decent power, makes contact and works the count. He’s an average fielder but his pinch-hitting skills are what could keep him on the final roster. Gall has stated that he would accept a bench role with the ‘06 Cards. He’ll turn 28 the day before the season opener, so accepting any role may be very wise for Gall at this point in his career.

He can best be classified as the classic AAAA guy; nothing left to prove at the minor league level but no real niche or place for him on the big league roster.

Gall may very well have to fend off John Rodriguez to make the Opening Day roster.

Rodriguez is a homegrown talent and manager Tony LaRussa really likes the potential in what he has seen thus far. J-Rod has some serious pop, is aggressive at the plate and gets quality at-bats. He needs to cut down his overall strikeout numbers to earn an everyday role with the Cards.

He may platoon with Bigbie in left or could be a decent left-handed option off of the bench. J-Rod’s play at Triple-A Memphis forced the Cards to call him up to the bigs in mid-July last year. He was hitting .342 with 17 homers and 47 RBI’s in only 120 at-bats. He continued to hit well in St. Louis posting a batting line of .295/.382/.436/.818 with 5 homers and 24 ribbies in only 149 at-bats. Rodriguez hit .282 with runners in scoring position. He is only an average fielder and base runner.

Rodriguez has fluid in his shoulder joint and that won’t help in his bid to win the starting left field job this Spring, he should still be able to make the team as a fourth/fifth outfielder and provided some extra pop off of the bench.

First baseman/outfielder Chris Duncan could provide a lefty option for LaRussa if he makes the Opening Day roster. The son of Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan had 21 homers and 73 RBI’s at Triple-A Memphis before being called up and given an opportunity with the parent club in 2005.

Duncan has taken advantage of the extra playing time provided by the WBC (World Baseball Classic) and has been impressive throughout his extensive action. He is doing everything in his power to make the team out of Spring Training.

First baseman Brian Daubach is also making a bid to make the team by coming through in opportunities afforded to him by the World Baseball Classic and Albert Pujols’s absence. Dauber was a perennial 20-homer threat for the boston Red Sox between 1999 and 2003 but has fallen off of the baseball map since (only 9 homers in the majors the past three years).

Daubach is a lifetime .259/.341/.476/.817 hitter who could provide some pop off of the bench in giving Pujols an occasional breather. He is not the most fluid defender so the likely choice would be Duncan in this slot. Dauber will be hard pressed to make the Cardinals’ final roster, he definitely has his work cut out for him this Spring.

The Cardinals have the makings of a strong lineup and deep bench for the 2006 season as they strive to make it back to the World Series and bring the crown back to St. Louis this time around. Walt Jocketty and company have done a fine job assembling a team that should mesh very well together both in the clubhouse and out on the field. When you add that to the managing of future Hall of Famer Tony LaRussa it has the fingerprints of success all over it.

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